Reliability Growth Analyses
About Reliability Growth Analysis
A Reliability Growth Analysis can help you make strategic decisions by indicating whether your data measurements are random or if they follow a trend. The graphs produced by a Reliability Growth Analysis will show any time-dependent trends, allowing you to make decisions based on past behavior and predict how your data will behave in the future.
Details
When you access the results of a Reliability Growth Analysis, if you see the data is trending in one direction until a certain point in time and then begins trending in another direction, you can examine what changed at the point in time when the trend shifted to determine the impact of those changes. In addition, if you make a strategy change and then examine whether the data worsens or begins to improve at that point, you can determine the impact of the strategy change. For example, a distinct change in a Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) plot can identify the point at which improved maintenance strategies were put into place for a piece of equipment.
Similarly, when you observe data that is trending at the same rate over time without distinct changes, you can use those trends to predict the data's future behavior. For example, if you are tracking the cost associated with running a piece of equipment over a certain period of time, and the cost is consistently higher during winter months, you can predict how much more it will cost to run the piece of equipment in December than it will in July.
Trend charts generated by Reliability Growth Analysis can also show outlying events that may have had significant effects on the overall trend of strategy effectiveness. For example, a thunderstorm that results in a two-day power outage at a plant should not reflect poorly on a piece of equipment's reliability. Reliability Growth Analysis allows you to ignore these types of events.
You can perform a Reliability Growth Analysis and examine trend charts for one piece of equipment or location or a group of similar pieces of equipment or locations. For example, you may want to examine trends for one pump that is constantly breaking down, or you may want to examine trends for a set of pumps to detect any improvement after you installed a new maintenance strategy.
Access a Reliability Growth Analysis
Procedure
Types of Reliability Growth Analysis
Before you can perform a Reliability Growth Analysis, you must collect data, or numeric values representing some variable's performance, over some period of time. All data that you collect will be:
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Based on events (e.g., a failure).
-or-
- Not based on an event, i.e. based on the consequence of an event (e.g., repair cost).
Both data that is event-based and not event-based will also be:
-
Grouped (i.e., datapoints represent multiple measurements or an amount).
or-
- Non-grouped (i.e., datapoints represent a single measurement).
By default, the GE Digital APM system assumes that your data is not grouped. You can specify that your analysis includes grouped data by including the amount of data per datapoint on the Select Data Fields screen. Data that is not event-based typically measures an amount (e.g., repair cost) and is grouped data.
Event-based data can be derived from:
- Failure Dates: Specific dates on which failures occurred. (e.g., 1/3/2012)
- Cumulative Operating Time: An amount of time that has passed since the piece of equipment was put into service (e.g., 10 days).
Data that is not event-based is usually derived from cumulative operating time.
About Evaluating Results of a Reliability Growth Analysis
Reliability Growth Analysis results are made up of multiple parts that together demonstrate an overall picture of your data. You can view the results in graphical form, use calculated values to interpret the results, and perform additional tasks to help you determine the trends in your data and whether they are getting better or worse.
Viewing the Data Trends
The following list gives a brief description of the graphs that display the data:
- Cumulative <Measurement> plot: Displays the number of measurements recorded for the Asset as a function of time. Since the log (cumulative measurement) versus the log (cumulative time) is linear, the plot line is a straight line. You can use this plot to see how your data is trending over time.
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Mean Time Between <Measurement> Trend plot: Reflects how frequently measurements are being recorded for pieces of equipment or locations (e.g., failures, cost) as a function of time (cumulative operating time). If the trend in this plot is:
- Increasing, measurements are being recorded less often (e.g., if a measurement is taken every time the Asset fails, the Asset is failing less often). This indicates that the Asset is becoming more reliable.
- Decreasing, measurements are being recorded more frequently (e.g., if a measurement is taken every time the Asset fails, the piece of Asset is failing more often). This indicates that the Asset is becoming less reliable.
- <Measurement> Rate Trend plot: Reflects the rate of your measurements (e.g., failures, cost). This plot can tell you a measurement per time unit, so that you can see per day or per month when measurements increase or decrease.
Interpreting the Data Trends
The following list gives a brief description of the values calculated by the GE Digital APM system that you can use to interpret trends within your data:
- Goodness of Fit: Helps you determine if the measurements are following a pattern or occurring at random.
- Confidence: Indicates the percentage of uncertainty of the Goodness of Fit method. The confidence level you select for your data helps determine whether or not the data will pass the Goodness of Fit test.
- The Beta Value: Helps you interpret the MTB<Measurement> Trend plot. This value is displayed on the Reliability Growth page.
- Next Estimated Event Date: Provides an estimate of the amount of time you can expect to pass before the next event will occur for the piece of equipment or location. The value is calculated using the last datapoint and the MTBF or measurement rate. The approximate date (or time) when the next event will occur is displayed on the Reliability Growth page.
- Initial and Final MTBF or Initial or Final <Measurement> Rate: Helps you compare how the piece of equipment or location is behaving at the beginning of the analysis versus the end of the analysis. Using these values, you can determine if the piece of equipment's or location's measurement rate has improved or deteriorated over the analysis period. These values are displayed on the Reliability Growth page.
Additionally, you can view the AMSAA Reliability Growth Model page for an overview of the formulas used by the GE Digital APM system to calculate the model results.
Using Tools to Enhance Results
The following tools can further assist you in interpreting and applying analysis results:
- Splitting an analysis: Allows you to divide an analysis into multiple parts so that you can see multiple trends in the data (e.g., data before and after a strategy change).
- Extrapolation: Allows you to estimate the number of measurements (e.g., failures, amount of cost) that will have occurred by some point in the future.
Based on the analysis results, you can generate recommendations for the maintenance and reliability activities that should be executed in the future to maintain best practices in your organization.
About the Beta Value and MTBE
The Reliability Growth page displays the Beta and Lambda values as calculated by the application based on your data. The Beta value indicates whether MTBE is increasing, decreasing, or remaining constant.
Details
The following table lists the relationship between Beta value and MTBF and how they affect the reliability of an equipment:
Beta Value | MTBF | Equipment Reliability |
---|---|---|
β = 1 | Unchanging MTBE (predictable failures) | If the Beta value is equal to or close to one (1), then the reliability is constant, and time is not a major factor. |
β < 1 | Increasing MTBE (improving reliability) | If the value of Beta is less than one, the reliability of the equipment is improving over time. |
β > 1 | Decreasing MTBE (deteriorating reliability) | If the value of Beta is greater than one (1), then the reliability of the equipment is deteriorating over time. |
If the Beta value indicates that the MTBE is increasing or decreasing, you can try splitting the failure data up by time, failure mode, operating time, or some other appropriate value to create a set of data where the Beta value is closer to one. If you choose to split the data into time periods, you might try to split a single analysis into multiple segments.
Collect Data for a Reliability Growth Analysis
The following table lists the data that you must collect to build a Reliability Growth Analysis.
Data Needed | Description | Notes |
---|---|---|
Asset ID |
An ID that uniquely describes a piece of equipment or location, such as Asset ID or Tag ID. Reliability Growth Analyses can be conducted on any number of Assets. |
This field is required and must be a character field. If the value in this field is blank, a blank Asset ID will be assigned to the data. |
Cumulative Operating Time |
The total amount of time that has passed since the piece of equipment or location was placed into service. |
This field is required for an analysis based on cumulative operating time. |
Downtime |
The amount of time the piece of equipment or location is not in operation. You can use the date a piece of equipment or location is repaired or the day it returns to service to help estimate downtime. If this information is available, it can be used to make the analysis more accurate. |
This field is optional for an analysis based on failure dates. Downtime is not used by analyses based on cumulative operating time. |
Downtime Units |
The downtime units. |
This field is used only by analyses based on failure dates that are using downtime. This field must be in calendar time. By default, the time in this field is measured in days. |
Failure Date |
The date on which the piece of equipment or location failed. This data can have many different descriptions such as Out of Service Date, Shutdown Date, or Failure Date. |
This field is required for an analysis based on failure dates and optional for an analysis based on cumulative operating time. For an analysis based on cumulative operating time:
|
Installation Date |
The date on which the piece of equipment or location was installed. |
This field is optional. Note: Providing Installation Date will improve the accuracy of the analysis.
|
Operating Time Units |
The operating time units. |
For an analysis based on failure dates, this field must be in calendar time. For an analysis based on cumulative operating time, you can use custom time units, such as miles. By default, the time in this field is measured in days. |
Measurement Name |
The type of the measurements you are collecting (e.g., failures, safety events, or cost). Throughout the documentation, we use the term measurement to represent the pieces of data that are being collected. |
This value is required for all analyses. |
Number of Failures |
The number of failures or amount of data that is recorded at each measurement. |
This field is optional. If no data is provided for this field, the GE Digital APM system will assume there is one failure for each datapoint. If you are using grouped data, this field is required. |
Access Multiple Reliability Growth Analyses
About This Task
You can access multiple Reliability Growth Analyses and compare multiple plots for the selected analyses. You cannot modify the details of the analyses from which the Comparison Plot is generated.
Procedure
Create a Reliability Growth Analysis From Failure Dates Using an Existing Query or Dataset
About This Task
If you record event-based data, such as failure dates (e.g., a failure was recorded on 5/5/12), you can create a Reliability Growth Analysis using event-based data and data containing dates.
Procedure
Create a Reliability Growth Analysis From Cumulative Operating Time Using an Existing Query or Dataset
About This Task
If you record event-based data using operating time instead of failure dates (e.g., a failure occurred after the piece of equipment was running for 10 days), then you can create a Reliability Growth Analysis using event-based data and cumulative operating time (COT).
Procedure
Create a Reliability Growth Analysis from Manually Entered Data
Procedure
Modify the Analysis Period
Procedure
Rename a Reliability Growth Analysis
Procedure
Choose the Time Units for an Analysis
About This Task
The time units are used for expressing time values for calculations performed within an analysis. For example, a calculation may indicate the amount of time that lapsed between a failure event and the end date of the analysis period. This value would be expressed in the Time Units for the analysis.
Your Time Units selection will depend on what type of data you are using and what type of analysis you are performing. For example, in an analysis that shows the distribution of failures for a number of Assets over many years, years might be an appropriate unit of time. For an analysis designed to evaluate failures for a single Asset within a very specific time period, a smaller unit of time would be appropriate. For this reason, you can choose the Time Units that are most appropriate for a given analysis.
Procedure
Specify the Data Format for a Reliability Growth Analysis
About This Task
When you create an analysis, you will choose whether or not your data is event-based and select the measurement name that will be used throughout the analysis via the Select Data Format screen in the Reliability Growth Builder. By default, the Measurement Name will be set to Failures.
Procedure
Modify the Confidence Level for a Reliability Growth Analysis
Procedure
Estimate Data in the Future
Procedure
Split an Analysis Into Segments
About This Task
A Reliability Growth Analysis may, in some cases, indicate that your data is trending in an undesirable direction (e.g., failures are occurring very often, costs are too high). In these cases, you will probably decide to make significant adjustments to your work process to improve the results. You can create a Reliability Growth Analysis that is split into segments to represent periods of time before and after you made changes to improve the reliability of your equipment and locations.
When you generate a report for an analysis that has been split into segments, the report will contain information about each segment and the analysis as a whole.
Procedure
Merge Segments With Previous Segments
After you have split an analysis into multiple segments, you can merge the segments back into one segment.
Procedure
Access Reliability Growth Analysis Report
Procedure
About Reliability Growth Analysis Reports
The baseline GE Digital APM database includes the Reliability Growth report, which you can use to view the summary of the results of a Reliability Growth Analysis.
The Reliability Growth Report is built from the following Catalog items:
- The main report, GrowthAnalysisReport, which is stored in the Catalog folder \\Public\Meridium\Modules\Reliability Manager\Reports.
- The subreport, AssetsubreportGrowth, which is stored in the Catalog folder \\Public\Meridium\Modules\Reliability Manager\Reports.
- The subreport, FailuresubreportGrowth, which is stored in the Catalog folder \\Public\Meridium\Modules\Reliability Manager\Reports.
- The supporting query that supplies data in the main report and subreports, GrowthAnalysisQuery, which is stored in the Catalog folder \\Public\Meridium\Modules\Reliability Manager\Reports.
Throughout this documentation, we refer to the main report, the subreports, and the supporting query collectively as the Reliability Growth report.
The Reliability Growth report contains a prompt on the ENTY_KEY field in the Reliability Growth family. When you run the Reliability Growth Report while viewing a Reliability Growth Analysis, the ENTY_KEY of the Reliability Growth record associated with the current analysis is passed automatically to the prompt, and the results for the current Reliability Growth Analysis are displayed. If you run the main report (i.e., GrowthAnalysisReport) or the supporting query (i.e., GrowthAnalysisQuery) directly from the Catalog, however, you will need to supply the ENTY_KEY of a Reliability Growth record manually to retrieve results. The subreports (i.e., Catalog items AssetsubreportGrowth and FailuresubreportGrowth) cannot be run directly from the Catalog.
Analysis Summary Section
The Analysis Summary section of the Reliability Growth Analysis report displays information that is stored in the Reliability Growth record and the Growth Model record that is linked to the Reliability Growth record. The Analysis Summary section will look different depending on whether or not your analysis data is event-based and the value you enter in the Measurement Name box. Also, the values in the Analysis Summary section will come from different fields in the Reliability Growth and Growth Model records, depending on whether the analysis is based on dates or cumulative operating time.
The following table lists each item in the Analysis Summary section for an analysis based on dates that contains event-based data and the corresponding Reliability Growth or Growth Model record field whose data is displayed in the report.
Report Item | Reliability Growth or Growth Model record | Record field |
---|---|---|
Analysis Name | Reliability Growth | Analysis ID |
Analysis Description | Reliability Growth | Short Description |
Analysis Start | Reliability Growth |
Analysis Start Date Note: If the analysis is based on cumulative operating time, the report will used the value in the Analysis Start Time field.
|
Analysis End | Reliability Growth |
Analysis End Date Note: If the analysis is based on cumulative operating time, the report will use the value in the Analysis End Time field.
|
Number of Assets | Reliability Growth | Assets |
Total <Measurement> | Growth Model | Number of Failures |
Time Units | Reliability Growth | Time Units |
Observation Time |
Growth Model Reliability Growth |
Total Observation Time Time Units |
Initial MTBF | Reliability Growth |
Initial MTBF Time Units |
Final MTBF | Reliability Growth |
Final MTBF Time Units |
Next Estimated Event Date | Reliability Growth |
TTNF Time Units |
Use Confidence | Reliability Growth | Use Confidence |
Confidence | Reliability Growth | Confidence Level |
Last Modified | Reliability Growth | LAST UPDT DT |
Modified By | Reliability Growth |
LAST UPBY SEUS KEY Note: The name of the Security User associated with this value is displayed in the report.
|
The Analysis Summary section for an analysis that is not event-based will appear mostly the same as the Analysis Summary section for an analysis that is event-based, with the following exceptions.
- The Next Estimated Event Date field will not be displayed in the Analysis Summary section.
- The Initial MTBF and Final MTBF fields will be labeled Initial <Measurement> Rate and Final <Measurement> Rate, respectively.
Growth Model Segments Section
The Growth Model Segments section of the Reliability Growth report displays information that is stored in the Reliability Growth record and the Growth Model record that is linked to the Reliability Growth record. The Growth Model Segments section will look different depending on whether the analysis is based on dates or cumulative operating time.
The following table lists each item in the Growth Model Segments section for an analysis based on dates and the corresponding Reliability Growth or Growth Model record field whose data is displayed in the report.
Report Item | Reliability Growth or Growth Model record | Record field |
---|---|---|
Segment | Growth Model | Sequence |
Start Date | Growth Model | Model Start Date |
End Date | Reliability Growth | Analysis End Date |
Termination Type
)
| Reliability Growth |
Is Grouped Data Time Terminated Note:
If the value in the Is Grouped Data field is True, the Termination Type is Grouped-Data. If the value is False, the Termination Type depends on the value in the Time Terminated field. If the value in the Time Terminated field is False, the Termination Type is Event-Based. If the value in this field is True, the Termination Type is Time-Based. |
Beta | Growth Model | Beta |
Lambda | Growth Model | Lambda |
Statistic | Growth Model | GOF Statistic |
Critical Value | Growth Model |
GOF P-Value |
Passed | Growth Model |
Passed GOF |
The Growth Model Segments section for an analysis that contains cumulative operating time will appear mostly the same as the Growth Model Segments section for an analysis that contains dates, with the following exceptions.
- The Start Date and End Date fields will not be displayed in the Growth Model Segments section.
-
The Growth Model Segments section will display the following fields.
Report Item Reliability Growth or Growth Model record Record field Start Time Reliability Growth Analysis Start Time End Time Reliability Growth Analysis End Time
Assets Section
The Assets section of the Reliability Growth report displays values that are stored in the Failures field in the Reliability Growth record. The Assets section will look different depending on whether the analysis is based on dates or cumulative operating time.
The following columns in the Assets section contain data that is stored in the Failures field in the Reliability Growth record:
- Asset ID
-
Installation Date
Note: The Installation Date column appears only for analyses based on dates. - Last Replacement
<Measurement> Data Section
The <Measurement> Data section of the Reliability Growth report displays information that is stored in the Failures field of the Reliability Growth record. The <Measurement> Data section will look different depending on whether the analysis is based on dates or cumulative operating time. It will also look different depending on the value you enter in the Measurement Name box.
The following columns in the <Measurement> Data section contain data that is stored in the Failures field in the Reliability Growth record:
- Asset ID
- Date
-
Time
Note: The Time column appears only for analyses based on dates. -
Downtime
Note: The Downtime column appears only for analyses based on dates. -
COT
Note: The COT column appears only for analyses based on cumulative operating time. - <Measurement>
- Ignore
- Remarks
- Cumulative Time
Plots Section
The Plots section of the Reliability Growth report displays the graphs that are accessed via the Reliability Growth page.
The Plots section contains the following graphs: