Risk Profile and Cost Projection charts are on the Strategy Details page and the Risk Analysis page of every strategy in ASM. This topic explains each type of chart or graph and how best to interpret them and the results that they provide for your assets.
The Risk Profile chart that appears on the Strategy Details page shows only the Active and Unmitigated risk ranks, whereas the Risk Analysis shows the Proposed risk rank data, allowing you to compare the Active Strategy and the Proposed Strategy.
Note: The Risk Profile chart does not display Risk records that have been removed from the Proposed Strategy.
Risk Rank
The following image shows an example of a Risk Profile chart from the Risk Analysis section of a strategy, displaying the Risk Rank graph.
The Risk Rank graph contains the following elements:
Note: If a Proposed Strategy contains more Risks than the corresponding Active Strategy, the additional Risks are displayed on the Risk Profile chart. For any additional Risk, the unmitigated risk rank and the active risk rank will be the same until the strategy is activated.
Financial Risk
You can use the radio buttons on the Risk Profile (Risk Profile) chart to toggle between the Risk Rank graph and the Financial Risk graph. As seen below, the Financial Risk graph shows the financial risk of each asset in the strategy.
The risks are shown on the x-axis, while the y-axis contains a monetary amount in US Dollars (USD) for the following scenarios, which appear in the following chart.
Manipulating the Risk Rank and Financial Risk Charts
You can select
For example, consider the following graph, which shows the total mitigated risk, 150.1, for Lubricant Degradation across all risk categories.
You would also see this value on the action card for Strategy Mitigated Risk Rank, accessed via the Risks and Actions page in your Asset Strategy.
If you filtered the Risk Profile section to display only risk values associated with the Operations risk category, it would look like the graph in the following image.
If you place the cursor over the line and the bars, you can choose to show the datapoint values on the graph to determine the exact risk rank values. The following image displays the example graph with the cursor hovering over the unmitigated risk bar for Lubricant Loss.
The Cost Projection chart combines the Active and Proposed scenarios for the cost of risk mitigation over a set period of time as defined in the Plan Length field for the strategy record, with the increments of time being on the y-axis and a monetary amount in US Dollars (USD) on the x-axis. The Strategy Details page show only the Active scenarios, while the Risk Analysis page compares both Active and Proposed. The Proposed scenarios appear as a light-blue vertical bar and the Active projections appear as a dark-blue vertical bar, as seen in the following chart.
When the optimization process is initiated from ASM, the contents of the Asset Strategy are transferred to the ASO module and the strategy in ASM is placed in Simulation mode. An Active scenario and a proposed scenario are then created in ASO.
The purpose of the Active scenario is to retain a visible record of the source strategy in ASO, for comparison purposes, while the proposed scenario provides a copy to be modeled under various proposed changes, the results of which will be shown in the simulation results, and in ASM.
When changes are made to the source strategy in ASM or to the proposed scenario in ASO, these are not immediately reflected in the linked module, i.e., synchronization is not automatic. The contents of the two modules are synchronized each time a Monte Carlo simulation is run.
When a simulation run is initiated all scenarios (Active, Proposed and copies) are subjected to Monte Carlo simulation, for which valid simulation data will need to be added via the scenario grids. If insufficient or invalid data is preventing simulation from running the user is taken to each scenario in turn to complete the necessary data, with mandatory entries being indicated by a red icon and a count showing on the scenario tab in the left navigation pane.
When the simulation run has been completed the contents of the proposed scenario are reflected in ASM, which is placed in a modified state. If initial synchronization, based on the proposed scenario in ASO, has not taken place, or the proposed scenario has been modified in ASO since the last simulation run, the user will not be permitted to make changes to the source strategy in ASM via Risk Analysis. Here the user will be notified on Risk Analysis and Review Strategy pages of the need to rerun the simulation and a hyperlink provided on these pages to initiate the Simulation run.
Note: The above restrictions on modifying a strategy in ASM do not apply to the Risk and Actions pages. Any additions or modifications to Actions and Risks will be captured in the Active and Proposed scenarios in ASO when the user selects Run Simulation in ASM. It is important that the hyperlink provided in the Risk Analysis and Review Strategy pages in ASM is used at this point since changes in ASM will not be captured if the Simulation is run from ASO. If the user chooses to run the Simulation from ASO the modified strategy will be overwritten with the simulation results from the proposed scenario before these changes had been captured and run in the ASO Analysis.
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