Integrated Systems Planning and why it matters

A few key challenges driving the necessity for ISP are:

• Load growth is accelerating as data centers and Artificial Intelligence (AI) ramp up, exacerbated by the electrification of industry.
• The rise of renewables is growing, and decarbonizing plants is also creating new challenges in grid reliability.
• New policies, governments, and regulatory models are emerging around renewables that must be considered and adopted.
• Grid systems and technology that weren’t initially designed for this changing energy landscape.
• New levels of complexity that must be produced both technically and economically require new skills, models, and tools to navigate.

The grid is undergoing three interrelated transformations: operations, uncertainty, and physics. The ongoing transformations in the energy sector are driven by the shift from Synchronous Machines (SMs) such as gas, nuclear, hydro, and coal to Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs) like wind, solar, batteries, and HVDC systems. This transition makes it challenging for planners to assess various reliability aspects simultaneously. 

The shift from conventional SMs to renewable energy sources is redefining grid operations. Traditional power plants, such as those fueled by coal, natural gas, or nuclear energy, provide a fairly steady fuel source that helps ensure grid stability. However, renewable energy sources like wind and solar have variable energy delivery, depending on weather conditions. These characteristics make balancing supply and demand more complex, requiring advanced forecasting, operations flexibility, and integration of energy storage solutions.

The second transformation is the increased uncertainty on the grid due to more frequent extreme weather events. Heatwaves, storms, and cold snaps can greatly impact energy demand and supply. The weather may cause more uncertainty than the variability of renewable resources alone. At the same time, the electrification of transportation and industrial sectors is increasing demand. All these factors increase the uncertainty of energy generation and utilization. Accurate modeling and scenario planning are crucial to help ensure reliability.

The third transformation is the physics of the system; not only are we shifting in fuel sources and uncertainty, but the shift from synchronous machines to inverter-based resources changes the physics of the grid. Synchronous machines naturally provide inertia, stabilizing frequency, and voltage through the rotation of the equipment. In contrast, IBRs like solar and wind rely on inverters to convert direct current (DC) to alternating current (AC)^.1 This results in the physics of the frequency and the voltage being fundamentally different from SMs. Without careful coordination, the grid may face more risks of generators tripping offline due to voltage and frequency instability. Awareness of these challenges allows you to address them head-on with innovative solutions to maintain stability and reliability in a system with increasing penetration of IBRs.

With these three transformations happening in unison, it means that grid planning can no longer occur in silos. Addressing challenges like variability, uncertainty, and the changing physics of the grid requires a comprehensive approach. ISP provides a unified framework for integrating comparative analysis to help address operational, economic, and technical factors.